MTT Data

Here’s some information on the win distribution of MTT players with different skill levels over different sample sizes. See this post for more information on how it was generated.

ROI	Tourneys Played	Expected Earn	Chance of Loss	Chance of Earning < .5x EV	Chance of Earning > 1.5x EV	Chance of Earning > 2x EV	Standard Deviation
20%	100	$2,394.53	65%	67%	30%	28%	$18,585.18
20%	500	$11,972.65	53%	60%	30%	25%	$44,009.92
20%	1000	$23,945.30	42%	50%	36%	31%	$61,479.31
20%	2000	$47,890.60	33%	44%	35%	25%	$88,140.68
20%	5000	$119,726.50	20%	38%	30%	17%	$138,984.43
40%	100	$4,789.06	61%	65%	27%	23%	$23,262.91
40%	500	$23,945.30	37%	51%	31%	26%	$51,610.30
40%	1000	$47,890.60	29%	44%	32%	23%	$71,611.76
40%	2000	$95,781.20	14%	33%	28%	17%	$97,886.49
40%	5000	$239,453.00	6%	26%	21%	8%	$165,349.43
60%	100	$7,183.59	56%	63%	29%	24%	$25,652.40
60%	500	$35,917.95	29%	49%	31%	25%	$60,563.41
60%	1000	$71,835.90	20%	41%	27%	18%	$83,019.78
60%	2000	$143,671.80	9%	33%	26%	13%	$119,527.45
60%	5000	$359,179.50	1%	16%	17%	4%	$183,835.47
80%	100	$9,578.12	51%	62%	25%	21%	$30,978.19
80%	500	$47,890.60	24%	46%	28%	22%	$69,439.22
80%	1000	$95,781.20	12%	36%	28%	16%	$95,094.01
80%	2000	$191,562.40	5%	27%	23%	9%	$138,899.84
80%	5000	$478,906.00	0%	13%	12%	2%	$203,351.00
100%	100	$11,972.65	47%	61%	24%	18%	$32,541.62
100%	500	$59,863.25	18%	44%	25%	20%	$73,688.91
100%	1000	$119,726.50	9%	35%	25%	11%	$101,343.14
100%	2000	$239,453.00	1%	24%	18%	5%	$141,119.81
100%	5000	$598,632.50	0%	8%	10%	1%	$224,240.35

Note in particular that this data is not at all normally distributed until the sample size gets to about 5k. Typically, when people calculate things like this, they’ll approximate it by the normal distribution (go central limit theorem!), which leads to hugely inaccurate results. Here’s a comparison (I’ve sorted the data differently here. Sorry for the nasty formatting.):

Tourneys Played	ROI	Expected Earn	Standard Deviation	Chance of Loss	Incorrect Value Given by Norm Approx	Chance of Earning < .5x EV	Incorrect Value Given by Norm Approx	Chance of Earning > 1.5x EV	Incorrect Value Given by Norm Approx	Chance of Earning > 2x EV	Incorrect Value Given by Norm Approx
100	20%	$2,394.53	$18,585.18	65%	45%	67%	47%	30%	47%	28%	45%
100	40%	$4,789.06	$23,262.91	61%	42%	65%	46%	27%	46%	23%	42%
100	60%	$7,183.59	$25,652.40	56%	39%	63%	44%	29%	44%	24%	39%
100	80%	$9,578.12	$30,978.19	51%	38%	62%	44%	25%	44%	21%	38%
100	100%	$11,972.65	$32,541.62	47%	36%	61%	43%	24%	43%	18%	36%
500	20%	$11,972.65	$44,009.92	53%	39%	60%	45%	30%	45%	25%	39%
500	40%	$23,945.30	$51,610.30	37%	32%	51%	41%	31%	41%	26%	32%
500	60%	$35,917.95	$60,563.41	29%	28%	49%	38%	31%	38%	25%	28%
500	80%	$47,890.60	$69,439.22	24%	25%	46%	37%	28%	37%	22%	25%
500	100%	$59,863.25	$73,688.91	18%	21%	44%	34%	25%	34%	20%	21%
1000	20%	$23,945.30	$61,479.31	42%	35%	50%	42%	36%	42%	31%	35%
1000	40%	$47,890.60	$71,611.76	29%	25%	44%	37%	32%	37%	23%	25%
1000	60%	$71,835.90	$83,019.78	20%	19%	41%	33%	27%	33%	18%	19%
1000	80%	$95,781.20	$95,094.01	12%	16%	36%	31%	28%	31%	16%	16%
1000	100%	$119,726.50	$101,343.14	9%	12%	35%	28%	25%	28%	11%	12%
2000	20%	$47,890.60	$88,140.68	33%	29%	44%	39%	35%	39%	25%	29%
2000	40%	$95,781.20	$97,886.49	14%	16%	33%	31%	28%	31%	17%	16%
2000	60%	$143,671.80	$119,527.45	9%	11%	33%	27%	26%	27%	13%	11%
2000	80%	$191,562.40	$138,899.84	5%	8%	27%	25%	23%	25%	9%	8%
2000	100%	$239,453.00	$141,119.81	1%	4%	24%	20%	18%	20%	5%	4%
5000	20%	$119,726.50	$138,984.43	20%	19%	38%	33%	30%	33%	17%	19%
5000	40%	$239,453.00	$165,349.43	6%	7%	26%	23%	21%	23%	8%	7%
5000	60%	$359,179.50	$183,835.47	1%	3%	16%	16%	17%	16%	4%	3%
5000	80%	$478,906.00	$203,351.00	0%	1%	13%	12%	12%	12%	2%	1%
5000	100%	$598,632.50	$224,240.35	0%	0%	8%	9%	10%	9%	1%	0%