MTT Data

Here’s some information on the win distribution of MTT players with different skill levels over different sample sizes.  See this post for more information on how it was generated.

ROI Tourneys Played Expected Earn Chance of Loss Chance of Earning < .5x EV Chance of Earning > 1.5x EV Chance of Earning > 2x EV Standard Deviation
20% 100 $2,394.53 65% 67% 30% 28% $18,585.18
20% 500 $11,972.65 53% 60% 30% 25% $44,009.92
20% 1000 $23,945.30 42% 50% 36% 31% $61,479.31
20% 2000 $47,890.60 33% 44% 35% 25% $88,140.68
20% 5000 $119,726.50 20% 38% 30% 17% $138,984.43
40% 100 $4,789.06 61% 65% 27% 23% $23,262.91
40% 500 $23,945.30 37% 51% 31% 26% $51,610.30
40% 1000 $47,890.60 29% 44% 32% 23% $71,611.76
40% 2000 $95,781.20 14% 33% 28% 17% $97,886.49
40% 5000 $239,453.00 6% 26% 21% 8% $165,349.43
60% 100 $7,183.59 56% 63% 29% 24% $25,652.40
60% 500 $35,917.95 29% 49% 31% 25% $60,563.41
60% 1000 $71,835.90 20% 41% 27% 18% $83,019.78
60% 2000 $143,671.80 9% 33% 26% 13% $119,527.45
60% 5000 $359,179.50 1% 16% 17% 4% $183,835.47
80% 100 $9,578.12 51% 62% 25% 21% $30,978.19
80% 500 $47,890.60 24% 46% 28% 22% $69,439.22
80% 1000 $95,781.20 12% 36% 28% 16% $95,094.01
80% 2000 $191,562.40 5% 27% 23% 9% $138,899.84
80% 5000 $478,906.00 0% 13% 12% 2% $203,351.00
100% 100 $11,972.65 47% 61% 24% 18% $32,541.62
100% 500 $59,863.25 18% 44% 25% 20% $73,688.91
100% 1000 $119,726.50 9% 35% 25% 11% $101,343.14
100% 2000 $239,453.00 1% 24% 18% 5% $141,119.81
100% 5000 $598,632.50 0% 8% 10% 1% $224,240.35

Note in particular that this data is not at all normally distributed until the sample size gets to about 5k.  Typically, when people calculate things like this, they’ll approximate it by the normal distribution (go central limit theorem!), which leads to hugely inaccurate results.  Here’s a comparison (I’ve sorted the data differently here. Sorry for the nasty formatting.):


Tourneys Played ROI Expected Earn Standard Deviation Chance of Loss Incorrect Value Given by Norm Approx Chance of Earning < .5x EV Incorrect Value Given by Norm Approx Chance of Earning > 1.5x EV Incorrect Value Given by Norm Approx Chance of Earning > 2x EV Incorrect Value Given by Norm Approx
100 20% $2,394.53 $18,585.18 65% 45% 67% 47% 30% 47% 28% 45%
100 40% $4,789.06 $23,262.91 61% 42% 65% 46% 27% 46% 23% 42%
100 60% $7,183.59 $25,652.40 56% 39% 63% 44% 29% 44% 24% 39%
100 80% $9,578.12 $30,978.19 51% 38% 62% 44% 25% 44% 21% 38%
100 100% $11,972.65 $32,541.62 47% 36% 61% 43% 24% 43% 18% 36%
500 20% $11,972.65 $44,009.92 53% 39% 60% 45% 30% 45% 25% 39%
500 40% $23,945.30 $51,610.30 37% 32% 51% 41% 31% 41% 26% 32%
500 60% $35,917.95 $60,563.41 29% 28% 49% 38% 31% 38% 25% 28%
500 80% $47,890.60 $69,439.22 24% 25% 46% 37% 28% 37% 22% 25%
500 100% $59,863.25 $73,688.91 18% 21% 44% 34% 25% 34% 20% 21%
1000 20% $23,945.30 $61,479.31 42% 35% 50% 42% 36% 42% 31% 35%
1000 40% $47,890.60 $71,611.76 29% 25% 44% 37% 32% 37% 23% 25%
1000 60% $71,835.90 $83,019.78 20% 19% 41% 33% 27% 33% 18% 19%
1000 80% $95,781.20 $95,094.01 12% 16% 36% 31% 28% 31% 16% 16%
1000 100% $119,726.50 $101,343.14 9% 12% 35% 28% 25% 28% 11% 12%
2000 20% $47,890.60 $88,140.68 33% 29% 44% 39% 35% 39% 25% 29%
2000 40% $95,781.20 $97,886.49 14% 16% 33% 31% 28% 31% 17% 16%
2000 60% $143,671.80 $119,527.45 9% 11% 33% 27% 26% 27% 13% 11%
2000 80% $191,562.40 $138,899.84 5% 8% 27% 25% 23% 25% 9% 8%
2000 100% $239,453.00 $141,119.81 1% 4% 24% 20% 18% 20% 5% 4%
5000 20% $119,726.50 $138,984.43 20% 19% 38% 33% 30% 33% 17% 19%
5000 40% $239,453.00 $165,349.43 6% 7% 26% 23% 21% 23% 8% 7%
5000 60% $359,179.50 $183,835.47 1% 3% 16% 16% 17% 16% 4% 3%
5000 80% $478,906.00 $203,351.00 0% 1% 13% 12% 12% 12% 2% 1%
5000 100% $598,632.50 $224,240.35 0% 0% 8% 9% 10% 9% 1% 0%

Here’s the rest of the data in some ugly graphs. The red lines indicate the expected earn:

If you’d like to provide me with some more data to play around with or you’d like the raw data, let me know.